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SCENARIO PLANNING


There are a number of approaches to scenario planning Dawson Knox Youth Jersey , and they differ greatly based on the people doing the planning and the type of industry the planning is done for. Some of the best examples come from Citibank and Royal Dutch Shell and although the BASIC's of each are the same the actual scenarios will be very different. Where Shell would be concerned with the Middle East cutting off oil supplies to one political entity or another while Citibank might be more concerned with Japan or the European economy going into a recession.


The most important thing to remember is to challenge your assumptions and create a new and hopefully more realistic view of the future from which to begin the strategic planning process. In many companies the entire concept of 'strategic planning? has been changed to 'scenario planning.? If you can successfully test and restructure the assumptions of the decision makers you have a much better chance of generating creative scenarios and, therefore, strong and aggressive strategic plans. The idea is not to ?get it right? but to expand the thought process.


Scenario planning IS NOT the logical projection of historical data so that you can say, ?In the next five years growth will average 3.5% a year Devin Singletary Youth Jersey , blah, blah, blah? - and from there write a strategic plan.


Scenario planning IS a creative method of examining possible futures and building the one that is desired while taking into account what COULD happen and how it would affect the plan. A major advantage of using scenarios to set up strategic planning is to gain ideas and insights that would be missed by using the traditional projection process. It is also a method of forcing the planning team to look at more than the 'desired? outcome and, therefore Cody Ford Youth Jersey , be prepared for or even aggressively plan for, events out of the ordinary.


What do we need to do to keep ourselves from being on the outside looking in? How is e-commerce & e-business going to impact our relationships with our customers and what can we do to position ourselves for whatever you need to accomplish in that eventuality?


If you could predict the future you would be telling fortunes instead of working in the distribution industry.


So what is this thing called Scenario Planning all about?


Scenario planning is just a tool. Like any other management tool it is only valuable if you understand it and put it to use.


Scenario planning has progressed to the point of becoming a popular management tool to support and even replace, in some cases, the strategic planning process. It is a useful Ed Oliver Youth Jersey , practical and uncomplicated way to think about the future. Scenario planning allows you to look at an array of alternative plausible futures (although it is recommended that these alternatives should be limited to two to six maximum).


The purpose of scenario planning is not to imminently decide which scenario is correct. Look at each plausible future scenario and examine how prepared your company is for the potential change and consequences. Ideally you should try to establish markers or milestones that may occur in each scenario that would alert you to which scenario is actually unfolding. By knowing in advance due to these pre-determined benchmarks you put yourself ahead of your competition in not only reacting to the events but actually having an outline of a plan in place to take advantage of the situation.


To be successful at scenario planning, your scenario planning team and you must be able to suspend your disbeliefs in all possible futures.


Remember, the cosmic truth of scenario planning rests on the belief that the future cannot be predicted absolutely. Therefore, who is say what is and isn't really possible?


To help in the suspension of your disbelief Zay Jones Youth Jersey , consider the following:


?Silicon intelligence is going to evolve to the point where it will get hard to tell computers from human beings.? Gorden E. Moore, Intel Corp.


?Silicon will even give birth to new kinds of life. The advantage of this new silicon life is immortality and unimaginable brainpower. Inspired scientists will forge composite human-silicon life forms with a common conscious that transcends all living beings.? Robert E. Newham, Scientist, Penn State University


?Super brainy machines could make the science fiction nightmare come true.? Kevin Warwick Tre'Davious White Youth Jersey , Cybernetics Research


The human brain has only a short time left as the smartest thing on earth. The speed and complexity of computers will continue to double every 18 months through 2012. The density of computer circuits will have jumped 1,000 fold and the raw processing power of a human brain will fit into a shoebox. With luck, that milestone may come as early as 2005.? John C. Carson, Irvine Sensors Corp.


Now that we've stated our case in Cyber Power terms Tremaine Edmunds Youth Jersey , perhaps any disbelief about potential evolutionary change in the distribution industry can be put to rest and we can look at the process of Scenario Planning.


Determine Your Objectives


Look at specific objectives based on your own end game five years into the future. Ask yourself questions related to your specific objectives; should I diversify and take on additional products outside the traditional line? Should I merge with XYZ? Don't worry too much about the types of questions that come to mind. Exploring all these questions may lead you to discovering the right ones that fit your specific objectives.


Remember, looking into the future, trying to determine the impact of roll ups, big box competition and factory direct channel confusion often leads us only to uncertainty. However Josh Allen Youth Jersey , in spite of the uncertainty, it is no longer acceptable to just try to run your business the way you have in the past. Evolution in the distribution industry brought on by the new century is forcing us to set a course in advance, to steer through the cloudy issues on the hor erseys[/url] Wholesale Jerseys China Wholesale Jerseys Cheap Wholesale Jerseys China Cheap Wholesale NCAA Jerseys China Wholesale College Jerseys Cheap Wholesale Basketball Jerseys